Will electoral defeat favour moderation in Argentina?

ON THE NIGHT of a mid-term legislative election on November 14th the mood in the opposition’s campaign headquarters was oddly flat. Across Buenos Aires the governing Peronists were euphoric. President Alberto Fernández called for a rally this week in the Plaza de Mayo, scene of the movement’s past triumphs, “to celebrate victory”. In fact, the opposition won 42% of the national vote against only 34% for the Peronists. The celebration was because they had expected worse. That was not the only oddity: while defeat heralds two difficult years for Mr Fernández’s government, it may also make it easier for him to take some tough decisions, such as coming to terms with the IMF.

Mr Fernández, who calls himself a social democrat, governs in a loveless political marriage with his vice-president, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner (no relation). She is a leftist populist who offered him the top place on the Peronist slate for the presidential election in 2019. In some ways it was she who was the big loser this time. The Peronists lost their majority in the Senate for the first time since democracy was restored in Argentina in 1983. Although they remain the largest party, Ms Fernández, who as vice-president chairs the upper chamber, can no longer dictate its agenda. Humiliatingly, the Peronists came third in Santa Cruz, her adopted home province in Patagonia, long a family fief.