Peru has the necessary tools to stage a rapid and timely economic recovery, said Kelli Bissett-Tom, Director of Latin American Sovereigns at
Fitch Ratings.
Thus, she predicted a better performance of the gross domestic product (GDP) in the Bicentennial year, with a recovery of 9% in 2021.
According to the economist, the economy will bounce back in a V-shaped recovery, which will be favored by five factors, as stated in a report published on Monday by
El Peruano official gazette.
"The first one is the statistical effect, given the severe fall that the Peruvian economy experienced this year. More than 50% of the growth in 2021 will be explained by a rebound effect," she explained.
Secondly, Bissett-Tom highlighted the weight of investment. "Mining and real estate investments in suburban areas, as well as an important reactivation of public investment, will be particularly promoted despite the electoral component of next year."
The Fitch representative referred to the recovery in household consumption as the third factor in this process. "This is very important, as it is partially conditioned by the dynamics of the labor market," she said.
Regarding the fourth factor, the director stated that tourism will be reactivated starting in the second half of 2021, particularly when COVID-19 vaccines become available to the population.
"Finally, as a fifth factor, we expect monetary policy to remain expansive until at least 2022, which is the limit of our forecast horizon," she said.
(END) PDO/SDD/RMB
Published: 12/28/2020